Postgraduate Diploma in Probabilistic Reliability (LOLE/ELCC)
Online 800-hour Postgraduate Diploma in Probabilistic Reliability (LOLE/ELCC). 8 modules covering Regulation (EU) 2019/943 (internal electricity market), ERAA Methodology (ACER, European resource adequacy assessment) and PLEXOS. Dedicated tutor and open enrolment.
Take the controls.
Run a real engineering trade-off from this programme. Move the sliders, watch the model react in real time and beat the challenge.
What you will be able to do
Explain the concepts of system adequacy and reliability.
Build probabilistic models of generation and demand.
Calculate LOLE, LOLP and EENS indicators.
Estimate the ELCC capacity credit of renewables and storage.
Apply these indicators to capacity planning.
Assess the reliability of the transmission network.
Communicate adequacy results for decision-making.
Who it's for
- System adequacy analyst who wants to specialise in Probabilistic Reliability (LOLE/ELCC).
- Capacity planner who wants to specialise in Probabilistic Reliability (LOLE/ELCC).
- Grid reliability engineer who wants to specialise in Probabilistic Reliability (LOLE/ELCC).
- Electricity market analyst who wants to specialise in Probabilistic Reliability (LOLE/ELCC).
- Regulatory consultant who wants to specialise in Probabilistic Reliability (LOLE/ELCC).
- Energy modeller who wants to specialise in Probabilistic Reliability (LOLE/ELCC).
- Graduates in engineering or sciences seeking to join system operators.
What you'll work with
- Regulation (EU) 2019/943 (internal electricity market)
- ERAA Methodology (ACER, European resource adequacy assessment)
- IEEE 762 (definitions of generating unit availability)
- Regulation (EU) 2019/941 (risk preparedness)
- Regulation (EU) 2017/1485 (system operation)
- NERC MOD-025 (verification of generator capability)
8 modules · 800 h
1.1Adequacy versus security1.2LOLE, LOLP and EENS indicators1.3Reliability standard and VOLL1.4Cost of new entry (CONE)1.5ENTSO-E ERAA European assessment1.6ACER methodology for the reliability standard1.7National resource adequacy assessments1.8Risk factors with high renewable penetration1.9Adequacy in isolated systems1.10Case study: interpreting an ERAA report
2.1Capacity outage probability tables2.2Two-state failure models2.3Equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR)2.4Capacity convolution2.5Sequential Monte Carlo simulation2.6Non-sequential simulation2.7Climate years and correlation2.8Demand modelling2.9Convergence and coefficient of variation2.10Laboratory: LOLE calculation by convolution in Python
3.1Hourly modelling of wind and solar3.2Correlation with temperature and demand3.3Renewable droughts and Dunkelflaute3.4Limited-duration storage3.5Hydro reservoir management3.6Demand response in adequacy3.7Interconnections and external contribution3.8Dispatch models in simulation3.9Reanalysis climate data3.10Practice: adequacy simulation with storage
4.1Concept of effective load carrying capacity (ELCC)4.2Average versus marginal ELCC4.3Calculation by equivalent capacity search4.4ELCC saturation with penetration4.5Battery ELCC by duration4.6Interactions between resources4.7Derating factors in capacity markets4.8PJM, CAISO and ERCOT methodologies4.9European derating methodologies4.10Workshop: calculating the ELCC of a solar plant
5.1Generation expansion with reliability criteria5.2Capacity expansion models5.3Integrating adequacy and planning5.4Capacity markets and mechanisms5.5Strategic reserve5.6Capacity auctions5.7Economic valuation of reliability5.8Energy transition scenarios5.9Tools: Antares, PLEXOS and GridPath5.10Laboratory: simulation with Antares Simulator
6.1Composite generation-transmission reliability6.2Transmission reliability indices6.3Distribution reliability: SAIDI and SAIFI6.4Grid failure analysis in adequacy6.5Climate risk and extreme events6.6Interconnection reliability6.7Resilience metrics6.8NERC planning standards6.9Integrating reliability into grid planning6.10Case study: composite reliability of a test system
7.1Interpreting results for regulators7.2Uncertainty and sensitivities7.3Complementary metrics: duration and frequency7.4Communicating risk to decision-makers7.5Peer review of methodologies7.6Transparency and data publication7.7Controversial market cases7.8Common errors in adequacy studies7.9Adequacy studies for investment7.10Practice: executive report on an adequacy study
8.1System definition and horizon8.2Collection of generation and demand data8.3Probabilistic modelling8.4LOLE and EENS calculation8.5ELCC calculation for resources8.6Sensitivity analysis8.7Capacity recommendations8.8Results report8.9Written report and presentation8.10Final review with the tutor
How you'll learn
Training 100 % online on the SEIUM campus, with downloadable material, recorded lectures and an assigned technical tutor. There are no fixed timetables: students progress at their own pace within the intake, which makes it possible to combine study with work.
Each module combines theory, guided reading of the original standard and applied exercises. The working software is PLEXOS, Antares Simulator, Python (NumPy, pandas), GE MARS, in free, academic or evaluation versions. Practical exercises are based on real procedures for Monte Carlo adequacy simulations, ELCC calculation for renewables and storage, and analysis of planning scenarios. Assessment is continuous, module by module, plus a final integrating project.
Build it end to end
Your final project follows the real engineering workflow, step by step, reviewed by your tutor.
Explain the concepts of system adequacy and reliability.
Build probabilistic models of generation and demand.
Calculate LOLE, LOLP and EENS indicators.
Estimate the ELCC capacity credit of renewables and storage.
Apply these indicators to capacity planning.
Where this takes you
Requirements
- Prior technical training or professional experience in the sector. A university degree is not required.
- Internet connection and a computer capable of running the programme's software.
- Sufficient level of Spanish to follow technical regulatory texts.
Ready to start?
Send your application today. Our admissions team replies within 72 hours with your study plan and funding options.
Frequently asked questions
The programme consists of 800 hours in total, spread over 6 to 8 months. That is an average of 10 to 15 hours per week, compatible with a full-time job.
You will work with PLEXOS, Antares Simulator, Python (NumPy, pandas), GE MARS. Free, academic or evaluation versions are used, and the tutor indicates the free alternative where one exists.
A SEIUM diploma upon passing the continuous assessment and the final integrating project. It is in-house training, not an official qualification from the Ministry.
Yes. Modules passed in a course or postgraduate diploma in the same area are recognised towards the advanced programme. Check the recognition policy when you enrol.
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