Course on Deterministic vs Probabilistic Models
Online 300-hour course on deterministic vs probabilistic models. 6 modules covering IAEA SSG-2 Rev.1 (deterministic safety analysis), IAEA SSG-3 Rev.1 (Level 1 PSA) and RiskSpectrum PSA. Assigned tutor and open enrolment.
Take the controls.
Run a real engineering trade-off from this field. Move the sliders, watch the model react in real time and beat the challenge.
What you will be able to do
Compare the foundations of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches to nuclear safety.
Apply the acceptance criteria of deterministic analysis to initiating events.
Build event tree and fault tree models for a Level 1 PSA.
Quantify core damage frequencies and component importance measures.
Propagate uncertainties and carry out sensitivity analyses in both approaches.
Integrate deterministic and probabilistic results into risk-informed decisions.
Produce a comparative analysis of a safety case study.
Who it's for
- Deterministic safety analyst who wants to specialise in deterministic vs probabilistic models.
- PSA analyst who wants to specialise in deterministic vs probabilistic models.
- Licensing engineer who wants to specialise in deterministic vs probabilistic models.
- Systems reliability specialist who wants to specialise in deterministic vs probabilistic models.
- Risk-informed decision consultant who wants to specialise in deterministic vs probabilistic models.
- Safety assessor at a regulatory body who wants to specialise in deterministic vs probabilistic models.
- Engineering or science graduates seeking to enter the nuclear power sector.
What you'll work with
- IAEA SSG-2 Rev.1 (deterministic safety analysis)
- IAEA SSG-3 Rev.1 (Level 1 PSA)
- IAEA GSR Part 4 Rev.1 (safety assessment of facilities)
- Regulatory Guide 1.174 (risk-informed decisions, NRC)
- Regulatory Guide 1.200 (technical adequacy of PSAs, NRC)
- IAEA SSG-4 Rev.1 (Level 2 PSA)
- NUREG-1855 (treatment of uncertainties in risk-informed decisions)
6 modules · 300 h
1.1Origins of the deterministic approach1.2WASH-1400 and the birth of PSA1.3Defence in depth and safety margins1.4Risk, frequency and consequence1.5Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty1.6Risk-informed approach1.7IAEA position: SSG-2 and SSG-31.8NRC policy statement on PSA1.9Historical debate between both approaches1.10Case study: critical reading of WASH-1400
2.1Selection of postulated initiating events2.2Conservative assumptions and single failure2.3Acceptance criteria2.4Conservative analysis versus BEPU2.5Order statistics and Wilks' formula2.6System codes and their qualification2.7Design basis accidents and extended conditions2.8Limitations of conservatism2.9Documentation in the safety report2.10Practice: sample size using Wilks' formula
3.1Event trees3.2Fault trees and minimal cut sets3.3Reliability data and common cause failures3.4Human reliability: THERP and SPAR-H3.5Level 1 PSA: core damage frequency3.6Level 2 PSA: releases to containment3.7Level 3 PSA: off-site consequences3.8Fussell-Vesely and RAW importance measures3.9SAPHIRE and RiskSpectrum tools3.10Workshop: fault tree of a safety injection system
4.1Probabilistic representation of uncertainty4.2Monte Carlo and Latin hypercube sampling4.3Bayesian inference of parameters4.4Model and completeness uncertainty4.5Global sensitivity with Sobol indices4.6Interval methods and Dempster-Shafer4.7Communicating uncertain results4.8DAKOTA and URANIE tools4.9Decision-making under uncertainty4.10Laboratory: propagation of uncertainties in a thermal model
5.1Risk-informed regulation: RG 1.1745.2Risk-informed technical specifications5.3Component categorisation under 10 CFR 50.695.4Risk-informed in-service inspection5.5Risk monitors in operation5.6Dynamic PSA5.7Application to SMRs and advanced designs5.8Licensing Modernization Project5.9Criticisms and limitations of PSA5.10Case study: technical specification change with RG 1.174
6.1Selection of the system or event6.2Conservative deterministic analysis6.3BEPU analysis with uncertainties6.4Simplified probabilistic model6.5Quantification and importance measures6.6Comparison of conclusions6.7Proposal for an integrated approach6.8Discussion of limitations6.9Report and presentation6.10Final review with the tutor
How you'll learn
Fully 100 % online training on the SEIUM campus, with downloadable material, recorded classes and an assigned technical tutor. There are no fixed timetables: students progress at their own pace within the intake, which makes it possible to combine the course with work.
Each module combines theory, guided reading of the original standard and applied exercises. The working software is RiskSpectrum PSA, SAPHIRE, RAVEN, DAKOTA, Python (NumPy), in free, academic or evaluation versions. Practicals are based on real procedures for building event and fault trees, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and comparative studies of licensing cases. Assessment is continuous, module by module, plus the final integrating project.
Build it end to end
Your final project follows the real engineering workflow, step by step, reviewed by your tutor.
Compare the foundations of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches to nuclear safety.
Apply the acceptance criteria of deterministic analysis to initiating events.
Build event tree and fault tree models for a Level 1 PSA.
Quantify core damage frequencies and component importance measures.
Propagate uncertainties and carry out sensitivity analyses in both approaches.
Where this takes you
Requirements
- No prior degree is required.
- Internet connection and a computer capable of running the programme's software.
- Sufficient command of Spanish to follow technical regulatory texts.
Ready to start?
Send your application today. Our admissions team replies within 72 hours with your study plan and funding options.
Frequently asked questions
The programme comprises 300 hours in total, spread over 3 to 5 months. That is between 10 and 15 hours a week on average, compatible with a full-time job.
Work is carried out with RiskSpectrum PSA, SAPHIRE, RAVEN, DAKOTA, Python (NumPy). Free, academic or evaluation versions are used, and the tutor indicates the free alternative where one exists.
A SEIUM diploma upon passing the continuous assessment and the integrating project. This is in-house training, not an official Ministry qualification.
Yes. Modules passed in a course or Postgraduate Diploma in the same area are recognised in the higher programme. Check the recognition policy when you enrol.
Related programmes
Course in Atmospheric Radiological Dispersion Simulation
Online 300 h course in atmospheric radiological dispersion simulation. 6 modules aligned with IAEA GSR Part 7 (emergency preparedness and response), IAEA GSG-2 (criteria for nuclear…
Course in Monte Carlo Applied to Radiation Transport
Online 300-hour course in Monte Carlo applied to radiation transport. 6 modules covering JCGM 101 (propagation of distributions using Monte Carlo), ANSI/ANS-6.1.1 (fluence-to-dose conversion factors) and…
Course on Fast vs Thermal Neutrons in Nuclear Design
300 h online course on fast vs thermal neutrons in nuclear design. 6 modules covering AIEA SSR-2/1 Rev.1 (safety of nuclear power plants: design), AIEA SSG-52…
More in Nuclear Engineering & Nuclear Fuel Cycle Technologies
All Nuclear Engineering & Nuclear Fuel Cycle Technologies programmes → · How to apply · Fees & financing · Scholarships